{"id":797,"date":"2018-08-07T12:16:36","date_gmt":"2018-08-07T04:16:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jqnets.com\/blog\/?p=797"},"modified":"2018-08-07T12:16:36","modified_gmt":"2018-08-07T04:16:36","slug":"%e3%80%8a%e7%82%ba%e4%bb%80%e9%ba%bc%e3%80%8b4%ef%bc%9a%e8%b2%9d%e8%91%89%e6%96%af%e7%9a%84%e6%96%b9%e6%b3%95","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jqnets.com\/blog\/%e3%80%8a%e7%82%ba%e4%bb%80%e9%ba%bc%e3%80%8b4%ef%bc%9a%e8%b2%9d%e8%91%89%e6%96%af%e7%9a%84%e6%96%b9%e6%b3%95\/","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u300b4\uff1a\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\t\u7528\u4e00\u53e5\u8a71\u6982\u62ec\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u301d\u89c0\u9ede\u96a8\u4e8b\u767c\u751f\u6539\u8b8a\u301e\u3002\u5c31\u5982\u5353\u514b\u8001\u5e2b\u611b\u8aaa\u7684\u4e00\u53e5\u8a71\uff1a\u301d\u77e5\u8b58\u9019\u6771\u897f\u5c31\u5f97\u7d93\u5e38\u5730\u6838\u5be6\u548c\u8a02\u6b63\u301e\u3002\u9019\u500b\u9053\u7406\u5f88\u7c21\u55ae\uff0c\u4f60\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u7576\u9019\u500b\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7684\u65b0\u4e8b\u5be6\u9032\u4f86\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u5f97\u4fee\u6b63\u9019\u500b\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u90a3\u600e\u9ebc\u4fee\u6b63\u5462\uff1f\u5805\u5b9a\u4e0d\u79fb — \u4e0d\u5c0d\uff0c\u807d\u98a8\u5c31\u662f\u96e8 — \u4e5f\u4e0d\u5c0d\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u79d1\u5b78\u7684\u4fee\u6b63\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/font><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6709\u9ede\u50cf\u7834\u6848\u3002\u798f\u723e\u6469\u65af\u611b\u8aaa\u81ea\u5df1\u7528\u7684\u662f\u6f14\u7e79\u6cd5\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\u3002\u7834\u6848\u662f\u301d\u6b78\u7d0d\u6cd5\u301e\uff0c\u6f14\u7e79\u6cd5\u662f\u6309\u7167\u898f\u5247\u63a8\u5c0e\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u6b78\u7d0d\u6cd5\u662f\u5f9e\u7d50\u679c\u8ffd\u6eaf\u7de3\u6545\u3002\u4f60\u662f\u5f9e\u4e00\u5177\u5c4d\u9ad4\u51fa\u767c\uff0c\u63a8\u6e2c\u662f\u8ab0\u6bba\u4e86\u4ed6\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u672c\u8cea\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5f9e\u7d50\u679c\u63a8\u6e2c\u7de3\u6545\u3002\u4f60\u61f7\u7591\u5147\u624b\u662f\u8001\u738b\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4f60\u6c92\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u8b49\u64da\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4f60\u7684\u61f7\u7591\u5ea6\u6bd4\u8f03\u4f4e\u3002\u6709\u4e00\u5929\u7d42\u65bc\u5f9e\u8001\u738b\u5bb6\u641c\u51fa\u4e86\u5147\u5668\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u8b49\u64da\u6703\u4f7f\u4f60\u5c0d\u8001\u738b\u7684\u61f7\u7591\u52a0\u91cd\uff0c\u4f60\u8981\u91cd\u65b0\u5c0d\u8001\u738b\u7684\u61f7\u7591\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u89c0\u9ede\u96a8\u4e8b\u5be6\u767c\u751f\u6539\u8b8a\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u800c\u9019\u9996\u5148\u5c31\u662f\u54f2\u5b78\u554f\u984c\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t1. \u4fe1\u4ef0\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u6982\u7387<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u4fd7\u4eba\u4e00\u8aaa\u4fe1\u4ef0\u90fd\u662f\u5805\u5b9a\u4e0d\u79fb\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u54f2\u5b78\u5bb6\u6703\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u610f\u898b\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t1,748\u5e74\uff0c\u8607\u683c\u862d\u54f2\u5b78\u5bb6\u5927\u885b\uff0e\u4f11\u6f20\u5beb\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u53eb\u300a\u8ad6\u5947\u8e5f\u300b\u3002\u8aaa\u50cf\u6b7b\u4eba\u5fa9\u6d3b\u9019\u7a2e\u660e\u986f\u9055\u53cd\u81ea\u7136\u5e38\u8b58\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5e7e\u500b\u76ee\u64ca\u8005\u8aaa\u770b\u898b\u4e86\u9019\u500b\u8b49\u64da\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u6709\u9ede\u592a\u5f31\u4e86\uff1f\u4f11\u6f20\u8aaa\u7684\u5176\u5be6\u5c31\u662f\u8036\u7a4c\u5fa9\u6d3b\uff0c\u7576\u7136\u4ed6\u4e0d\u6562\u76f4\u63a5\u9ede\u540d\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u4f11\u6f20\u8aaa\u7684\u6c92\u6bdb\u75c5\u3002\u5e73\u5e38\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u6211\u5011\u5bb9\u6613\u63a5\u53d7\u5947\u8e5f\u5247\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u5f37\u7684\u8b49\u64da\u3002\u5361\u723e\uff0e\u85a9\u6839\u8b1b\u904e\u4e00\u53e5\u8a71\uff0c\u301d\u8d85\u4e4e\u5c0b\u5e38\u7684\u8ad6\u65b7\u9700\u8981\u8d85\u4e4e\u5c0b\u5e38\u7684\u8b49\u64da\u3002<\/font>\u301e\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u90a3\u600e\u9ebc\u91cf\u5316\u8b49\u64da\u548c\u8ad6\u65b7\u7684\u806f\u7e6b\u5462\uff1f\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u4ec0\u9ebc\u53eb\u301d\u4fe1\u301e\u3001\u4ec0\u9ebc\u53eb\u301d\u4e0d\u4fe1\u301e\u5462\uff1f\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u8aaa\uff0c\u4f60\u5c0d\u67d0\u500b\u5047\u8a2d\u7684\u76f8\u4fe1\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u7528\u4e00\u500b\u6982\u7387\u4f86\u8868\u793a\uff1a\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\tP ( \u5047\u8a2d )<\/b><\/font>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\tP = 1 \u5c31\u662f\u7d55\u5c0d\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c P = 0 \u5c31\u662f\u7d55\u5c0d\u4e0d\u4fe1\uff0c P = 15% \u5c31\u662f\u6709\u4e00\u9ede\u4fe1\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5148\u628a\u4fe1\u4ef0\u7d66\u91cf\u5316\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u6709\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u8b49\u64da\u6211\u5011\u8981\u66f4\u65b0\u9019\u500b\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u8b8a\u6210\uff1a\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\tP ( \u5047\u8a2d | \u8b49\u64da )<\/strong><\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u9019\u500b\u53eb\u689d\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u4f86\u8aaa P ( A | B ) \u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\u301d\u5728 B \u4e8b\u4ef6\u662f\u771f\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c A \u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u301e\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8209\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0cA \u8868\u793a\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c B \u8868\u793a\u5e36\u5098\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u4f86\u8aaa\u9019\u500b\u5730\u65b9\u4e0d\u5e38\u4e0b\u96e8\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5 P ( A ) = 0.1 \u3002\u4f46\u662f\u4eca\u5929\u4f60\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u611b\u770b\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u7684\u8001\u5f35\u4e0a\u73ed\u5e36\u4e86\u5098\uff0c\u90a3\u4f60\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a8\u65b7\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u4e0b\u96e8\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u61c9\u8a72\u6703\u589e\u52a0 — \u5728\u301d\u8001\u5f35\u5e36\u5098\u301e\u9019\u500b\u689d\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u4e0b\u5098\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c\u5c31\u662f P ( A | B ) \u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u6ce8\u610f\u5982\u679c\u6211\u5011\u756b\u500b\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u7cfb\uff0c\u7de3\u6545 → \u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u88e1\u5c31\u662f\u301d\u4e0b\u96e8 → \u5e36\u5098\u301e\uff0c A → B\uff0c\u548c\u301d\u8001\u738b\u662f\u5147\u624b → \u5728\u8001\u738b\u5bb6\u88e1\u627e\u5230\u5147\u5668\u301e\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u90fd\u76f8\u7576\u65bc\u301d\u5047\u8a2d →\u8b49\u64da\u301e\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u73fe\u5728\u6211\u5011\u60f3\u7b97\u7684\u662f P ( \u5047\u8a2d | \u8b49\u64da ) \u662f\u5f9e\u7d50\u679c\u5012\u63a8\u7de3\u6545\u9019\u53eb\u301d\u9006\u6982\u7387\u301e\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u4e0d\u597d\u7b97\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u90fd\u662f\u5f9e\u7de3\u6545\u63a8\u7d50\u679c\u5bb9\u6613\u7b97\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8aaa\u4f60\u770b\u898b\u4e00\u500b\u5c0f\u5b69\u5411\u7a97\u6236\u6254\u7403\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f30\u8a08\u7a97\u6236\u88ab\u6253\u788e\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6709\u591a\u5927\u9019\u662f\u301d\u6b63\u5411\u6982\u7387\u301e\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u770b\u5230\u7a97\u6236\u788e\u4e86\uff0c\u60f3\u8981\u63a8\u6e2c\u7a97\u6236\u662f\u600e\u9ebc\u788e\u7684\u90a3\u5c31\u975e\u5e38\u56f0\u96e3\u4e86\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u5011\u8981\u7b97\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u9006\u6982\u7387\u9019\u8981\u600e\u9ebc\u7b97\u5462\uff1f\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t2. \u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u516c\u5f0f<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u70ba\u4e86\u8a08\u7b97  P ( A | B ) \uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8003\u616e\u9019\u9ebc\u4e00\u500b\u554f\u984c\uff1a A \u548c B \u90fd\u767c\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff1f\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u9019\u9053\u984c\u6709\u5169\u500b\u7b97\u6cd5\u3002\u4e00\u500b\u8fa6\u6cd5\u662f\u5148\u7b97\u51fa B \u767c\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff0c\u662f P ( B )\uff1b\u518d\u7b97 B \u767c\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c A \u4e5f\u767c\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6709\u5915\u5927\uff0c\u662f P ( A | B ) \uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc A\u3001B \u90fd\u767c\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u628a\u9019\u5169\u500b\u6578\u76f8\u4e58\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u662f P ( A | B ) x P ( B ) \u3002\u540c\u6a23\u9053\u7406\uff0c\u5148\u8003\u616e A \u767c\u751f\u518d\u8003\u616e A \u767c\u751f\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u4e0b B \u4e5f\u767c\u751f\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u662f P ( B | A ) x P ( A )\u3002\u9019\u5169\u500b\u7b97\u6cd5\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u4e00\u5b9a\u76f8\u5c0d\uff0c\u5373 P ( A | B ) x P ( B ) =  P ( B | A ) x P ( A )\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u8981\u9019\u7b97\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5e38\u5e38\u662fP ( A )\u3001P ( B )\u548c P ( B | A ) \u90fd\u5bb9\u6613\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u500b\u9006\u6982\u7387 P ( A | B )  \u53ea\u80fd\u7528\u9019\u500b\u516c\u5f0f\u9593\u63a5\u77e5\u9053\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u6211\u5011\u73fe\u5728\u4f86\u7b97\u4e00\u500b\u5177\u9ad4\u7684\u61c9\u7528\u3002\u6709\u4e00\u4f4d40\u6b72\u7684\u5973\u6027\u53bb\u505a\u4e73\u817a\u764c\u7684\u6aa2\u67e5\uff0c\u6aa2\u67e5\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u967d\u6027\u3002\u90a3\u8acb\u554f\uff0c\u9019\u4f4d\u5973\u6027\u771f\u7684\u5f97\u4e86\u4e73\u817a\u764c\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6709\u591a\u5927\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u6211\u5011\u7528 D \u8868\u793a\u5979\u5f97\u4e86\u4e73\u817a\u764c\uff0cT \u8868\u793a\u6e2c\u8a66\u7d50\u679c\u70ba\u967d\u6027\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u662f\u4e73\u817a\u764c\u5c0e\u81f4\u967d\u6027\uff0cD→ T\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8981\u8a08\u7b97 P ( D | T ) \u3002\u6839\u64da\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u6211\u5011\u9700\u8981 P ( D ) \u3001P ( T ) \u548c P ( T | D )\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u5728\u6709\u65b0\u8b49\u64da\u4e4b\u524d\uff0cP ( D )  \u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u76f8\u540c\u5e74\u9f61\u6bb5\u5973\u6027\u5f97\u4e73\u817a\u764c\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u7d71\u8a08\u8868\u660e\u662f1 \/ 700\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\tP ( T | D ) \u662f\u5982\u679c\u9019\u500b\u4eba\u771f\u6709\u4e73\u817a\u764c\uff0c\u5979\u7684\u76e3\u6e2c\u7d50\u679c\u70ba\u967d\u6027\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u9019\u662f\u7531\u6aa2\u6e2c\u5100\u5668\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f73\uff05\u5100\u5668\u4e26\u4e0d\u600e\u9ebc\u6e96\u78ba\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\tP ( T ) \u662f\u96a8\u4fbf\u627e\u500b\u4eba\uff0c\u7d66\u5979\u6aa2\u6e2c\u51fa\u967d\u6027\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u662f\u591a\u5927\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6211\u5011\u6c92\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u8981\u62c6\u6210\u9019\u500b\u4eba\u6709\u4e73\u817a\u764c( D ) \u548c\u6c92\u6709\u4e73\u817a\u764c ( ~D ) \u5169\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u5176\u4e2d P ( ~D ) = 1- P ( D ) = 699 \/ 700 \u3002\u525b\u624d\u8aaa\u4e86\u6709\u4e73\u817a\u764c\u3001\u6aa2\u6e2c\u70ba\u967d\u6027\u7684\u6982\u7387\u662f73%\u3002\u800c\u6c92\u6709\u4e73\u817a\u764c\u7684\u4eba\u9084\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u88ab\u8aa4\u8a3a\u6210\u967d\u6027\uff0c\u5df2\u77e5\u9019\u500b\u8aa4\u8a3a\u7387\u662f P ( T | ~D ) = 12%\u3002\u65bc\u662f
\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\tP ( T )  = P ( T | D ) x P ( D ) + P ( T | ~D )  x P ( ~D ) = 12.1 %\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u628a\u9019\u4e9b\u6578\u5b57\u5e36\u5165\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6700\u7d42\u5f97\u5230 P ( D | T ) = 1 \/ 116\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u54ea\u6015\u9019\u4f4d\u5973\u6027\u88ab\u6aa2\u6e2c\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u4e73\u817a\u764c\u967d\u6027\uff0c\u5979\u771f\u7684\u5f97\u4e73\u817a\u764c\u6982\u7387\u4e5f\u53ea\u6709\u4e0d\u5230 1 %\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u975e\u5e38\u51fa\u4e4e\u610f\u6599\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u9ed1\u7bb1\u64cd\u4f5c\u7684\u9b54\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f60\u9084\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4e0b\u9762\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u53c3\u8a73\u4e00\u4e0b\u3002\u5047\u8a2d\u6709 3,000 \u540d 40 \u6b72\u7684\u5973\u6027\uff0c\u6839\u64da\u524d\u9762\u8aaa\u7684\u5404\u9805\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u53ea\u67094\u4eba\u771f\u6709\u4e73\u817a\u764c\uff0c\u800c\u88ab\u6b63\u78ba\u6aa2\u6e2c\u70ba\u967d\u6027\u7684\u53ea\u6709\u4e09\u4eba\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u88ab\u6aa2\u6e2c\u5100\u5668\u8aa4\u8a3a\u70ba\u967d\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u537b\u6709360\u4eba\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u6240\u6709\u967d\u6027\u8a3a\u65b7\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e0d\u5230 1\uff05 \u7684\u4eba\u771f\u6709\u4e73\u817a\u764c\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u51fa\u73fe\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u7684\u6839\u672c\u539f\u56e0\u5c31\u5728\u65bc\u4e73\u817a\u764c\u7684\u60a3\u8005\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5f88\u5c0f\uff0c\u800c\u6aa2\u6e2c\u5100\u5668\u53c8\u5f88\u4e0d\u51c6\u78ba\u3002\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6bcf\u4e00\u672c\u8b1b\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u66f8\u90fd\u6703\u4f7f\u7528\u4e00\u500b\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u4f60\u60f3\u660e\u767d\u4e00\u500b\u5c31\u60f3\u660e\u767d\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u7684\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u8acb\u6ce8\u610f\u5982\u679c\u9019\u4f4d\u5973\u6027\u672c\u8eab\u651c\u5e36\u5bb9\u6613\u5f97\u4e73\u817a\u764c\u7684\u57fa\u56e0\uff0c\u90a3\u6211\u5011\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u9078\u7528\u7684 P ( D )  \u5c31\u4e0d\u662f1 \/ 700\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u61c9\u8a72\u662f 1 \/ 20\u3002\u7528\u9019\u500b\u6578\u7b97\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u7684 P ( D | T ) = 1\/3\uff0c\u9019\u5c31\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u4e86\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u95dc\u9375\u554f\u984c\u3002\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u4f60\u5230\u5e95\u6191\u4ec0\u9ebc\u9078\u64c7 P ( D )  \u7684\u6578\u503c\u5462\uff1f\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u90a3\u662f\u4f60\u7684\u4e3b\u89c0\u5224\u65b7\u3002<\/font><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t3. \u4fe1\u5ff5\u7684\u50b3\u64ad<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u6211\u5011\u518d\u770b\u4e00\u773c\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\uff1a\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u53f3\u908a\u4e58\u6cd5\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u9805 P ( B | A ) \/ P ( B )  , \u6709\u6642\u5019\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u301d\u4f3c\u7136\u6bd4\u301e\u3002\u90a3\u9ebc\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5beb\u6210\uff1a\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\tP ( \u5047\u8a2d | \u8b49\u64da ) = \u4f3c\u7136\u6bd4 x P ( \u5047\u8a2d )\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u5b83\u7406\u89e3\u6210\u301d\u89c0\u5ff5\u66f4\u65b0\u301e\u7684\u516c\u5f0f\u3002 P ( \u5047\u8a2d ) \u662f\u4f60\u7684\u8001\u89c0\u5ff5\uff0c\u65b0\u8b49\u64da\u767c\u751f\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u65b0\u89c0\u5ff5\u662f P ( \u5047\u8a2d | \u8b49\u64da ) \u3002\u65b0\u89c0\u5ff5\u7b49\u65bc\u8001\u89c0\u5ff5\u4e58\u4ee5\u4f3c\u7136\u6bd4\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u4f60\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u96a8\u8457\u4e8b\u5be6\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u6539\u8b8a\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u90a3\u6211\u5011\u8a2d\u60f3\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u95b1\u6b77\u548c\u60f3\u6cd5\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u54ea\u6015\u662f\u9762\u5c0d\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u8b49\u64da\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u66f4\u65b0\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u4e5f\u9084\u662f\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\uff01\u6240\u4ee5\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u672c\u8cea\u4e0a\u662f\u500b\u4e3b\u89c0\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u8b49\u64da\u5b83\u5141\u8a31\u4f60\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5224\u65b7\uff01<\/font><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u5bb6\u653b\u64ca\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u7e3d\u662f\u89ba\u5f97\u79d1\u5b78\u65b9\u6cd5\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u5ba2\u89c0\u7684\u624d\u5c0d\uff01\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u4f46\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u662f\u5c0d\u79d1\u5b78\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u5347\u7d1a\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u79d1\u5b78\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\uff1a\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \n

    \n\t\t\t\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u7406\u8ad6\u5047\u8a2d\uff1b\n\t\t<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  2. \n

    \n\t\t\t\u505a\u5be6\u9a57\u9a57\u8b49\uff1b\n\t\t<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  3. \n

    \n\t\t\t\u5982\u679c\u5be6\u9a57\u7d50\u679c\u7b26\u5408\u7406\u8ad6\u9019\u500b\u7406\u8ad6\u5c31\u66ab\u6642\u7ad9\u5f97\u4f4f\u8173\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\uff0c\u7406\u8ad6\u5c31\u8b49\u507d\u4e86\u3002\n\t\t<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u9019\u662f\u975e\u9ed1\u5373\u767d\u7684\u5287\u60c5\uff0c\u7406\u8ad6\u8981\u561b\u5c31\u7e7c\u7e8c\u4fdd\u7559\uff0c\u8981\u561b\u5c31\u5fb9\u5e95\u62cb\u68c4\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u800c\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u5247\u662f\u5148\u7d66\u7406\u8ad6\u5047\u8a2d\u8a2d\u5b9a\u4e00\u500b\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u3002\u65b0\u8b49\u64da\u4e26\u4e0d\u76f4\u63a5\u8b49\u5be6\u6216\u8005\u8b49\u507d\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u8abf\u6574\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u7684\u5927\uff0c\u5c0f\u505a\u4e00\u500b\u52d5\u614b\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5be6\u7528\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\u3002\u5177\u5be6\u6211\u5011\u60f3\u60f3\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u641e\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u4e26\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u4e86\u89e3\u301d\u7d55\u5c0d\u771f\u5be6\u301e\u7684\u4e16\u754c \u2015 \u4e5f\u8a31\u7d55\u5c0d\u771f\u5be6\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u6839\u672c\u5c31\u4e0d\u53ef\u77e5 \u2015 \u6211\u5011\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u901a\u904e\u7372\u53d6\u5be6\u7528\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\uff0c\u505a\u51fa\u76e1\u53ef\u80fd\u6e96\u78ba\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u548c\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002\u9019\u8ddf\u524d\u9762\u8aaa\u7684\u4e0d\u8ffd\u6c42\u7d55\u5c0d\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u548c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff0c\uff0c\u53ea\u8ffd\u6c42\u56de\u7b54\u4e09\u7a2e\u5be6\u7528\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u554f\u984c\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u9053\u7406\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t1982\u5e74\uff0c\u73c0\u723e\u672c\u4eba\u628a\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u9818\u57df\uff0c\u767c\u660e\u4e86\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u7db2\u8def\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8aaa\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u7db2\u8def\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u7db2\u8def\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u7db2\u8def\u4e26\u4e0d\u8981\u6c42\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u7bad\u982d A→ B \u50c5\u50c5\u4ee3\u8868\u5f9e A \u5230 B \u6709\u689d\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u3002\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e2b\u5148\u7d66\u7db2\u7d61\u4e0a\u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u7bc0\u9ede\u8a2d\u7f6e\u4e00\u500b\u4fe1\u5ff5\u503c\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u7528\u5927\u91cf\u6578\u64da\u3001\u7528\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u53bb\u66f4\u65b0\u9019\u4e9b\u4fe1\u5ff5\u503c\uff0c\u8a08\u7b97P ( B | A ) \u6216\u8005 P ( A | B ) \u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u65b0\u6578\u64da\u90fd\u80fd\u8b93\u7db2\u8def\u4e0a\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u503c\u66f4\u65b0\u4e00\u904d\u53eb\u505a\u301d\u4fe1\u5ff5\u50b3\u64ad\u301e\u3002<\/font><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u7db2\u7d61\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u57fa\u65bc\u7d93\u9a57\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6bd4\u4ee5\u524d\u90a3\u7a2e\u66b4\u529b\u5f0f\u7684\u6578\u64da\u5206\u6790\u8981\u7cbe\u78ba\u5f97\u591a\uff0e\u7528\u7db2\u8def\u7d50\u69cb\u53d6\u4ee3\u4e86\u8001\u5f0f\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7b97\u6cd5\u7684\u9ed1\u7bb1\u64cd\u4f5c\u3002\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u7db2\u7d61\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u5b8c\u5168\u9069\u7528\u65bc\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u5716\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u9084\u5728\u722d\u8ad6\u9019\u500b\u65b9\u6cd5\u5230\u5e95\u5c0d\u4e0d\u5c0d\uff0c \u4f46\u662f\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u90fd\u5f97\u627f\u8a8d\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u597d\u8655\u3002\u6bcf\u6b21\u4f60\u7528\u624b\u6a5f\u6253\u96fb\u8a71\u628a\u8a9e\u97f3\u4fe1\u865f\u8b8a\u6210\u6578\u5b57\u4fe1\u865f\uff0c\u518d\u628a\u6578\u5b57\u4fe1\u865f\u7de8\u78bc\u518d\u89e3\u78bc\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7528\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u8a9e\u97f3\u8b58\u5225\u3001\u5783\u573e\u90f5\u4ef6\u904e\u6ffe\u3001\u6cb9\u4e95\u947d\u63a2\u3001FDA\u6279\u51c6\u65b0\u85e5\u3001Xbox\u7d66\u4f60\u7684\u904a\u6232\u6c34\u5e73\u6253\u5206……\u5404\u7a2e\u4f60\u60f3\u5230\u548c\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u61c9\u7528\uff0c\u90fd\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u4f11\u6f20\u554f\u4e86\u4e00\u53e5\u301d\u6211\u5011\u5230\u5e95\u61c9\u8a72\u600e\u9ebc\u770b\u5f85\u8b49\u64da\u301e\uff0c\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u7d66\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u662f\u4e00\u6574\u5957\u73a9\u8f49\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/font><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t4. \u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u65b9\u6cd5<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. \n

      \n\t\t\t\u5148\u8a55\u4f30\u4e00\u4e0b\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u8a2d\u5b9a P ( \u4fe1\u5ff5 )\uff1b\n\t\t<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    2. \n

      \n\t\t\t\u7b49\u5f85\u65b0\u8b49\u64da\uff1b\n\t\t<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    3. \n

      \n\t\t\t\u8b49\u64da\u51fa\u4f86\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u7528\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u516c\u5f0f\u66f4\u65b0\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u8a08\u7b97 P ( \u4fe1\u5ff5 | \u8b49\u64da )\uff1b\n\t\t<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    4. \n

      \n\t\t\t\u7e7c\u7e8c\u7b49\u5f85\u65b0\u8b49\u64da\u3002\n\t\t<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      \n\t \n<\/p>\n

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