{"id":792,"date":"2018-08-06T09:37:37","date_gmt":"2018-08-06T01:37:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jqnets.com\/blog\/?p=792"},"modified":"2018-08-06T09:38:28","modified_gmt":"2018-08-06T01:38:28","slug":"792-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jqnets.com\/blog\/792-2\/","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u300b3\uff1a\u5230\u5e95\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u7cfb"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\t\u524d\u5169\u8b1b\u5df2\u7d93\u505a\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u92ea\u588a\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u6211\u5011\u7d42\u65bc\u53ef\u4ee5\u56de\u5230\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u4e86\uff1a\u79d1\u5b78\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5230\u5e95\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u7cfb\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5927\u53cd\u8f49\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5148\u5f9e\u54f2\u5b78\u958b\u59cb\u8aaa\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t1. \u54f2\u5b78<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4f60\u6ce8\u610f\u904e\u6c92\u6709\uff0c\u7269\u7406\u5b9a\u5f8b\u88e1\u6839\u672c\u5c31\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u7cfb\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u4f60\u62ff\u500b\u6c23\u58d3\u8a08\u6e2c\u91cf\u5927\u6c23\u58d3\uff0c\u7269\u7406\u5b9a\u5f8b\u8aaa\u4f60\u7684\u6c23\u58d3\u8a08\u8b80\u6578 B \u548c\u5927\u6c23\u58d3 P \u4e4b\u9593\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u6b63\u6bd4\u95dc\u7cfb\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\tB = kP<\/font>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u4f46\u662f\u9019\u500b\u5b9a\u5f8b\u88e1\u6839\u672c\u6c92\u8aaa\u301d\u8ab0\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e86\u8ab0\u301e\u3002\u662f\u6c23\u58d3\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e86\u6c23\u58d3\u8a08\u7684\u8b80\u6578\u55ce\uff1f\u53ef\u662f\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u5b8c\u5168\u53ef\u4ee5\u6539\u5beb\u6210 P = B \/ k<\/font> \uff0c\u53ea\u770b\u65b9\u7a0b\uff0c\u4f60\u5b8c\u5168\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u6c23\u58d3\u8a08\u7684\u8b80\u6578\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e86\u5927\u6c23\u58d3\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u3002\u7269\u7406\u5b9a\u5f8b\u53ea\u662f\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e00\u500b\u898f\u5f8b\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u5728\u4e4e\u56e0\u679c\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u76ae\u723e\u905c\u8a8d\u70ba\u6211\u5011\u53ea\u662f\u7e3d\u7d50\u5b87\u5b99\u7684\u898f\u5f91\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u6309\u7167\u898f\u5f8b\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u7e3d\u7d50\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u53bb\u505a\u4e8b\u800c\u5df2\uff1b\u81f3\u65bc\u8aaa\u898f\u5f8b\u80cc\u5f8c\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u7cfb\uff0c\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u8ab0\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e86\u8ab0\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u4f60\u6c38\u9060\u8aaa\u4e0d\u6e05\uff0c\u4e5f\u6c92\u610f\u7fa9\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u81ea\u6b64\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u54f2\u5b78\u5bb6\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u600e\u9ebc\u7528\u7d71\u8a08\u898f\u5f8b\u5b9a\u7fa9\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002\u6709\u4eba\u8aaa\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u95dc\u4fc2\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u5c31\u662f\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u6b63\u597d\u7b49\u65bc 100%\u3002\u9019\u6b63\u662f\u76ae\u723e\u905c\u7576\u5e74\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u3002\u76ae\u723e\u905c\u8aaa\u56e0\u679c\u5c31\u662f A \u767c\u751f B \u4e00\u5b9a\u767c\u751f\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u76f8\u95dc\u7cfb\u7d71\u6578\u65bc1\u3002\u4f46\u9019\u500b\u5b9a\u7fa9\u80af\u5b9a\u662f\u932f\u7684\u3002<\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u4f60\u60f3\u60f3\uff0c\u6a39\u6728\u662f\u901f\u751f\u9577\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u5c0f\u8349\u4e5f\u5728\u5feb\u901f\u751f\u9577\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u5169\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u5c31\u662f 1\uff0c\u90a3\u4f60\u80fd\u8aaa\u8349\u8ddf\u6a39\u4e4b\u9593\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u55ce\uff1f\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u6625\u5929\u5230\u4e86\u9019\u500b\u7de3\u6545\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e86\u6a39\u548c\u8349\u7684\u751f\u9577\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u5f8c\u4f86\u53c8\u6709\u54f2\u5b78\u9577\u60f3\u4e86\u8fa6\u6cd5\u3002\u8aaa\u6240\u8b02\u301dX \u5c0e\u81f4 Y\u301e\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u7cfb\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528 P ( X | Y ) > P ( Y )<\/font> \u4f86\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff1a X \u7684\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u589e\u5927\u4e86 Y \u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u6982\u7387\u5316\u7684\u56e0\u679c\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u6392\u9664\u55ae\u7d14\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u73c0\u723e\u5012\u662f\u7d66\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff1a P ( Y | do(X) ) > P ( Y ) \uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u55ae\u65b9\u9762\u5c0d X \u505a\u4e00\u500b\u5e72\u9810\u52d5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4 Y \u7684\u6982\u7387\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5c31\u662f X \u5c0e\u81f4\u4e86 Y\u3002\u9019\u500b\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u70ba\u6b62\u6700\u5408\u7406\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u53ef\u662f\u4e0d\u7ba1\u600e\u9ebc\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u6c38\u9060\u8aaa\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u4ec0\u9ebc\u53eb\u301d X \u5c0e\u81f4 Y\u301e\u3002\u4e5f\u8a31\u6211\u5011\u89c0\u796d\u5230\u7684\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u662f\u5e7b\u89ba\uff0c\u5225\u8aaa\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f60\u9023\u301d\u8b1b\u7406\u301e\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u8b1b\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u6211\u5011\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u4e00\u500b\u53cd\u5c0d\u610f\u898b\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u9019\u5957\u908f\u8f2f\u6c92\u7528\u3002<\/font><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t2. \u76ae\u723e\u905c\u7684\u5c37\u5c2c<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u76ae\u723e\u905c\u4e86\u5927\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u4e86\u5404\u7a2e\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u3002\u4ed6\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u5c31\u6c92\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u7fa9\uff0c\u4ed6\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u301d\u507d\u76f8\u95dc ( spurious correlation )\u301e\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u6bd4\u5982\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u4eba\u5747\u5de7\u514b\u529b\u6d88\u8cbb\uff0c\uff0c\u548c\u9019\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\u4eba\u6578\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u975e\u5e38\u5f37\u7684\u6b63\u76f8\u95dc\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u76ae\u723e\u905c\u8aaa\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u6c92\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u7fa9\u7684\u507d\u76f8\u95dc\u3002\u4f60\u7e3d\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u8aaa\u5403\u5de7\u514b\u529b\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u5f97\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u3002\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u89e3\u91cb\u9019\u500b\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u80af\u5b9a\u662f\u5de7\u514b\u529b\u6d88\u8cbb\u91cf\u9ad8\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6bd4\u8f03\u767c\u9054\uff0c\u800c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6bd4\u8f03\u767c\u9054\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u5bb9\u6613\u51fa\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u8acb\u6ce8\u610f\uff01\u4f60\u53ea\u8981\u9019\u9ebc\u4e00\u89e3\u91cb\uff0c\u5c31\u7528\u5230\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff01\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u9019\u5c31\u5f88\u5c37\u5c2c\u4e86\u3002\u9996\u5148\u4f60\u76ae\u723e\u905c\u8aaa\u6c92\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u53ea\u6709\u76f8\u95dc\u3002\u7136\u5f8c\u4f60\u53c8\u8aaa\u6709\u4e9b\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\u6709\u4e9b\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u662f\u507d\u76f8\u95dc\u3002\u90a3\u4f60\u5224\u65b7\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\u7684\u6a19\u6e96\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5462\uff1f\u96e3\u9053\u4e0d\u9084\u662f\u8981\u85c9\u52a9\u56e0\u679c\u55ce\uff1f\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u7121\u5f62\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u9084\u662f\u89ba\u5f97\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u66f4\u6709\u610f\u7fa9 \u2015 \u96d6\u7136\u6211\u5011\u7121\u6cd5\u7528\u7d14\u7cb9\u7406\u6027\u5b9a\u7fa9\u56e0\u679c\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u6211\u5011\u5982\u6b64\u5730\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u56e0\u679c\u601d\u7dad\uff0c\u5f9e\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u4f86\u8aaa\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u56e0\u679c\u601d\u7dad\u5f88\u6709\u7528\u3002\u4e00\u500b\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u5c31\u80fd\u52dd\u904e\u7121\u6578\u7d93\u9a57\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t3. \u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

\n\t\u5047\u8a2d\u6211\u5011\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u4e00\u500b\u6b7b\u578b\uff0c\u7e3d\u5171\u6709 5 \u500b\u8b8a\u91cf\u3002\n<\/p>\n

\n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \n

    \n\t\t\t\u6cd5\u5ead\u662f\u5426\u5224\u6c7a\u6b7b\u578b\n\t\t<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  2. \n

    \n\t\t\t\u968a\u9577\u662f\u5426\u4e0b\u4ee4\u958b\u69cd\n\t\t<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  3. \n

    \n\t\t\t\u58eb\u5175 A \u662f\u5426\u958b\u69cd\n\t\t<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  4. \n

    \n\t\t\t\u58eb\u5175 B \u662f\u5426\u958b\u69cd\n\t\t<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  5. \n

    \n\t\t\t\u72af\u4eba\u662f\u5426\u6b7b\u4ea1\n\t\t<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u9019\u4e94\u500b\u8b8a\u91cf\u7684\u503c\u90fd\u662f 1 \u6216\u8005\u662f 0\uff0c1 \u8868\u793a\u80af\u5b9a\uff0c0 \u8868\u793a\u5426\u5b9a\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u8b93\u4e00\u500b\u8a18\u8005\u53bb\u63a1\u8a2a\u5404\u500b\u6cd5\u5ead\u57f7\u884c\u6b7b\u578b\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5e7e\u4e4e\u53ef\u4ee5\u65b7\u5b9a\uff0c\u4ed6\u6bcf\u6b21\u9047\u5230\u7684\u9019\u4e94\u500b\u8b8a\u91cf\uff0c\u8981\u561b\u5168\u90fd\u662f 1 \uff0c\u8981\u561b\u5168\u90fd\u662f 0\u3002\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6578\u64da\u518d\u591a\uff0c\u4e5f\u56de\u7b54\u4e0d\u4e86\u6709\u60f3\u50cf\u529b\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u6bd4\u5982\u8aaa\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u554f\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6cd5\u5ead\u5224\u6c7a\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u968a\u9577\u4e0d\u4e0b\u4ee4\uff0c\u72af\u4eba\u6703\u4e0d\u6703\u6b7b\uff1f\u9019\u7a2e\u4e8b\u60c5\u5f9e\u4f86\u6c92\u6709\u767c\u751f\u904e\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4f60\u7684\u5927\u6578\u64da\u5728\u9019\u88e1\u7528\u4e0d\u4e0a\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u627f\u8a8d\u9019\u88e1\u9762\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u756b\u4e00\u5f35\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u5716\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u5716\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u7bad\u982d\u4ee3\u8868\u4e00\u500b\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u5f9e\u7de3\u6545\u6307\u5411\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u5f9e\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u80fd\u5920\u56de\u7b54\u6211\u5011\u7b2c\u4e00\u8b1b\u8aaa\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u4e09\u985e\u554f\u984c\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u7b2c\u4e00\u985e\u554f\u984c\u662f\u89c0\u5bdf\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u6cd5\u5ead\u5df2\u7d93\u5224\u6c7a\uff0c\u8acb\u554f\u72af\u4eba\u6703\u6b7b\u55ce\uff1f\u6211\u5011\u4e00\u770b\u5716\uff0c\u6cd5\u5ead\u5224\u6c7a\u958b\u555f\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u53cd\u61c9\u93c8\u689d\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u72af\u4eba\u5fc5\u9808\u6b7b\u3002\u4e00\u5207\u6578\u64da\u7d93\u9a57\uff0c\u9019\u88e1\u90fd\u80fd\u9810\u6e2c\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u7b2c\u4e8c\u985e\u554f\u984c\u662f\u5e72\u9810\u3002\u58eb\u5175 A \u60f3\u5e72\u9810\u4e00\u4e0b\u3002\u4ed6\u8aaa\u6211\u6709\u81ea\u7531\u610f\u5fd7\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u60f3\u807d\u968a\u9577\u547d\u4ee4\uff0c\u6211\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7acb\u5373\u958b\u69cd\u3002\u90a3\u72af\u4eba\u6703\u6b7b\u55ce\uff1f\u9019\u7a2e\u4e8b\u60c5\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u6c92\u6709\u767c\u751f\u904e\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6211\u5011\u770b\u4e00\u770b\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u5716\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u958b\u69cd\u72af\u4eba\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u6b7b\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u5224\u65b7\u72af\u4eba\u5fc5\u6b7b\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u7b2c\u4e09\u985e\u554f\u984c\u662f\u60f3\u50cf\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u72af\u4eba\u5df2\u7d93\u6b7b\u4e86\u3002\u72af\u4eba\u5bb6\u5c6c\u627e\u5230\u58eb\u5175 A\uff0c\u8aaa\u4f60\u7576\u521d\u8981\u662f\u4e0d\u958b\u69cd\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u4e0d\u6703\u6b7b\uff01\u58eb\u5175 A \u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u8003\u5bdf\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5927\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u4ed6\u99ac\u4e0a\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u62ff\u51fa\u9019\u5f35\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u5716\u8aaa\u4f60\u770b\uff0c\u660e\u4ee4\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0b\u9054\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u6211\u4e0d\u958b\u69cd\uff0c\u58eb\u5175 B \u4e5f\u6703\u958b\u69cd\uff0c\u72af\u4eba\u9084\u662f\u6703\u6b7b \u3002\u4f60\u60f3\u8981\u8b93\u72af\u4eba\u4e0d\u6b7b\uff0c\u4f60\u5f97\u8aaa\u670d\u6cd5\u5ead\u4e0d\u5224\u6c7a\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u8aaa\u670d\u968a\u9577\u4e0d\u4e0b\u4ee4\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u540c\u6642\u8aaa\u670d A \u548c B \u5169\u4eba\u90fd\u4e0d\u958b\u69cd\u624d\u884c\u554a\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u4f60\u770b\u9019\u662f\u591a\u9ebc\u6e05\u695a\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002\u6b77\u53f2\u5927\u6578\u64da\u4e0d\u80fd\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u9019\u4e9b\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u7cfb\u53ef\u4ee5\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u53ef\u662f\u9019\u500b\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u5716\u662f\u5f9e\u54ea\u4f86\u7684\u5462\uff1f\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u4e5f\u8a31\u72af\u4eba\u81ea\u5df1\u6703\u75c5\u6b7b\uff0c\u4e5f\u8a31\u6703\u88ab\u5225\u7684\u72af\u4eba\u6253\u6b7b\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u72af\u4eba\u9084\u53ef\u80fd\u8d8a\u7344……\u9019\u4e9b\u60c5\u6cc1\u4f60\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e0d\u8003\u616e\u5462\uff0c\u4f60\u9019\u5f35\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u5716\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u5fb9\u5e95\u56de\u7b54\u301d\u72af\u4eba\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6b7b\u4e86\u301e\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u597d\u3002\u908f\u8f2f\u4e0a\u7121\u6cd5\u79d1\u5b78\u5b9a\u7fa9\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e0a\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u53c8\u9019\u9ebc\u6709\u7528\uff0c\u90a3\u6211\u5011\u5230\u5e95\u8a72\u62ff\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u600e\u9ebc\u8fa6\u5462\uff1f\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u6240\u4ee5\u6709\u4e9b\u4e8b\u60c5\u770b\u4f3c\u7c21\u55ae\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7d30\u601d\u6975\u6050\u3002\u800c\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u64a5\u96f2\u898b\u65e5\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t4. \u64a5\u96f2\u898b\u65e5<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u4f7f\u7528\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u641e\u7814\u7a76\u7684\uff0c\u8c46\u570b\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u5bb6\u4f11\u5384\u723e\uff0e\u8cf4\u7279 ( Sewall Wright )\u3002 1920 \u5e74\uff0c\u8cf4\u7279\u767c\u8868\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e00\u7bc7\u6709\u95dc\u5929\u7afa\u9f20\u7684\u6bdb\u8272\u907a\u50b3\u7684\u8ad6\u6587\u3002\u4ed6\u8a2d\u8a2d\u6709\u4e09\u7a2e\u56e0\u7d20\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u97ff\u6bdb\u8272\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u662f\u767c\u5c55 ( d )\u3001\u907a\u50b3 ( h )\u3001\u74b0\u5883 ( e )\uff0c\u4ed6\u628aI\u6c34\u4e09\u7a2e\u56e0\u7d20\u756b\u6210\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u7cfb\u5716\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u7136\u5f8c\u8cf4\u7279\u6839\u64da\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5be6\u9a57\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u7528\u89e3\u65b9\u7a0b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u7b97\u51fa\u4e86\u4e09\u7a2e\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u76f8\u5c0d\u5927\u5c0f\u3002\u4ed6\u628a\u5929\u7afa\u9f20\u7684\u6bdb\u8272\u554f\u984c\u7d66\u89e3\u6c7a\u4e86\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u9019\u7d55\u5c0d\u662f\u958b\u5275\u6027\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u8cf4\u7279\u4e0d\u4f46\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u800c\u4e14\u9084\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u6d1e\u898b\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u8cf4\u7279\u8aaa\uff0c\u6211\u9019\u500b\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u5ba2\u89c0\u7684\u3002\u4f60\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u901a\u904e\u6578\u64da\u5206\u6790\u3001\u7528\u6a5f\u68b0\u5316\u7684\u6d41\u7a0b\u5f97\u5230\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u3002\u56e0\u679c\u5716\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u9019\u9ebc\u756b\u5716\u4e2d\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u8003\u616e\u4e86\u9019\u4e9b\u95dc\u4fc2\u800c\u6c92\u8003\u616e\u5225\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u4f60\u81ea\u5df1\u4e3b\u89c0\u7684\u9078\u64c7 \u2015 \u662f\u4f60\u7528\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\u3001\u95b1\u6b77\u548c\u5224\u65b7\u756b\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u4f60\u7684\u4e3b\u89c0\u5047\u8a2d\u3002<\/font><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u6578\u64da\u662f\u5ba2\u89c0\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4eba\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u662f\u4e3b\u89c0\u7684\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u662f\u5ba2\u89c0\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u56e0\u679c\u662f\u4e3b\u89c0\u7684\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u6709\u4e86\u9019\u500b\u6d1e\u898b\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u89e3\u6c7a\u554f\u984c\u7684\u6b65\u9a5f\u5c31\u662f\u4e0b\u9762\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u2015\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u6839\u64da\u4f60\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u898b\u8b58\uff0c\u756b\u4e00\u5f35\u4e3b\u89c0\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u5716\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u88e1\u6709\u4e9b\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u662f\u6982\u7387\u6027\u7684 A \u767c\u751f\u4e26\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u8b93 B \u767c\u751f\uff0c\u53ea\u8981 A \u5c0d B \u6709\u5f71\u97ff\u5c31\u884c\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65\u4f7f\u7528\u5be6\u9a57\u548c\u6578\u64da\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u78ba\u5b9a\u5716\u4e2d\u6bcf\u500b\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u7684\u5f37\u5f31\u5927\u5c0f\u3002\u9019\u6a23\u4f60\u5c31\u6709\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b65\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u56de\u7b76\u301d\u89c0\u5bdf\u3001\u5e72\u9810\u3001\u60f3\u50cf\u301e\u90a3\u4e09\u7a2e\u554f\u4e86\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u5982\u679c AI \u64c1\u6709\u9019\u985e\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u7b49\u65bc\u7372\u5f97\u4e86\u667a\u80fd\u3002\u73c0\u723e\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u301d\u5c0f\u5716\u9748\u554f\u984c\u301e\uff0c\u76f8\u7576\u65bc\u8a08\u7b97\u6a5f\u901a\u904e\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u5c0f\u7684\u5716\u9748\u6e2c\u8a66\uff1a\u4ed6\u5617\u63e1\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u601d\u7dad\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u4f60\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u6c92\u6709\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u81ea\u59cb\u81f3\u7d42\u6c92\u6709\u5fb9\u5e95\u56de\u7b54\u301d\u5230\u5e95\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u301e\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u771f\u6b63\u89e3\u6c7a\u301d\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u301e\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff01\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u5728\u6211\u770b\u4f86\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u9019\u500b\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u5999\u4e4b\u8655\u5c31\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u4f60\u7121\u9808\u78ba\u5b9a\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u4f60\u7121\u9808\u56de\u7b54\u301d\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u301e\u3002<\/font><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u771f\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u88e1\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u6e05\u90fd\u662f\u932f\u7d9c\u8907\u96dc\u7684\uff0c\u4f60\u6839\u672c\u5c31\u7121\u6cd5\u5217\u8209\u5f71\u97ff\u4e00\u500b\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7de3\u6545\u3002\u4f60\u5fc5\u9808\u505a\u51fa\u5404\u7a2e\u53d6\u6368\uff0c\u4f60\u53ea\u80fd\u628a\u4f60\u8a8d\u70ba\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7de3\u6545\u756b\u5728\u5716\u4e0a\u3002\u5716\u756b\u5b8c\u4e86\uff0c\u4f60\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u79d1\u5b78\u5730\u3001 \u5fb9\u5e95\u5730\u3001\u908f\u8f2f\u5b8c\u5099\u5730\u56de\u7b54\u301d\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u301e\u4f60\u53ea\u662f\u8aaa\u6839\u64da\u4f60\u7684\u731c\u6e2c\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u5e7e\u500b\u7de3\u6545\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u800c\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u4e5f\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u56de\u7b54\u301d\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u301e\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u7684\u5be6\u969b\u61c9\u7528\uff0c\u5c0d\u6539\u8b8a\u4e16\u754c\u771f\u6b63\u6b63\u6709\u7528\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u5c31\u662f\u56de\u7b54\u301d\u89c0\u5bdf\u3001\u5e72\u9810\u3001\u60f3\u50cf\u301e\u9019\u4e09\u7a2e\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/font><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u6240\u4ee5\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6700\u7d42\u76ee\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u67e5\u660e\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u56de\u7b54\u4e09\u7a2e\u554f\u984c\u3002\u9019\u4e09\u500b\u554f\u984c\u6bd4\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u66f4\u57fa\u672c \u2015 \u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u53ea\u662f\u6211\u5011\u56de\u7b54\u554f\u984c\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u6c92\u6709\u9019\u500b\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u53ea\u9760\u6578\u64da\u5206\u6790\u4f60\u56de\u7b54\u4e0d\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e8c\u548c\u7b2c\u4e09\u7a2e\u554f\u984c\u3002\u7576\u7136\u6709\u4e86\u9019\u500b\u624b\u6bb5\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba\uff0c\u4f60\u7d66\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u4e5f\u6703\u4e0d\u6e96\u78ba \u2015 \u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6f0f\u6389\u4e00\u500b\u7279\u5225\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u9019\u4e0d\u8981\u7dca\uff01\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u4e8b\u5152\u672c\u4f86\u5c31\u662f\u8ab0\u4e5f\u4fdd\u8b49\u4e0d\u4e86100%\u6e96\u78ba\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u54f2\u5b78\u5bb6\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u89c0\u8ab0\u4e5f\u53cd\u99c1\u4e0d\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u9019\u88e1\u4e0d\u89e3\u6c7a\u4e16\u754c\u89c0\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6cd5\u8ad6\u554f\u984c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e86\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u6700\u5f8c\uff0c\u8acb\u6ce8\u610f\u96d6\u7136\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u4e3b\u89c0\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u4ecd\u7136\u5177\u6709\u5ba2\u89c0\u7684\u6027\u8cea\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5169\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u756b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u5716\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u56e0\u70ba\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5ba2\u89c0\u7684\uff0c\u9019\u5169\u500b\u4eba\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u5fc5\u5b9a\u662f100\uff05\u76f8\u540c\u3002\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u6211\u5efa\u8b70\u4f60\u82b1\u9ede\u6642\u9593\u7422\u78e8\u4e00\u4e0b\u9019\u500b\u9053\u7406\u3002\u9019\u88e1\u908a\u6709\u54f2\u5b78\u3002\u4e3b\u89c0\u548c\u5ba2\u89c0\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u610f\u601d\u3002\u6309\u7406\u8aaa\u9019\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u5ba2\u89c0\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u8a66\u5716\u5ba2\u89c0\u5730\u8a8d\u8b58\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u7d66\u6771\u897f\u5206\u985e\u4e5f\u597d\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u4e5f\u597d\u505a\u9810\u6e2c\u4e5f\u597d — \u53ea\u8981\u4f60\u5fc3\u5ff5\u4e00\u52d5\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u5fc5\u7136\u662f\u4e3b\u89c0\u7684\u3002<\/font><\/b>\n<\/p>\n

    \n\t \n<\/p>\n

    \n\t\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a\u300a\u842c\u7dad\u7db1-\u5230\u5e95\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u7cfb\u300b<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    \u524d\u5169\u8b1b\u5df2\u7d93\u505a\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u92ea\u588a\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u6211\u5011\u7d42\u65bc\u53ef\u4ee5\u56de\u5230\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u4e86\uff1a\u79d1\u5b78\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5230\u5e95\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u7cfb\u3002   \u9019\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5927\u53cd\u8f49\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5148\u5f9e\u54f2\u5b78\u958b\u59cb\u8aaa\u3002     1. \u54f2\u5b78   \u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4f60\u6ce8\u610f\u904e\u6c92\u6709\uff0c\u7269\u7406\u5b9a\u5f8b\u88e1\u6839\u672c\u5c31\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u7cfb\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u4f60\u62ff\u500b\u6c23\u58d3\u8a08\u6e2c\u91cf\u5927\u6c23\u58d3\uff0c\u7269\u7406\u5b9a\u5f8b\u8aaa\u4f60\u7684\u6c23\u58d3\u8a08\u8b80\u6578 B \u548c\u5927\u6c23\u58d3 P \u4e4b\u9593\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u6b63\u6bd4\u95dc\u7cfb\u3002   B = kP   \u4f46\u662f\u9019\u500b\u5b9a\u5f8b\u88e1\u6839\u672c\u6c92\u8aaa\u301d\u8ab0\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e86\u8ab0\u301e\u3002\u662f\u6c23\u58d3\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e86\u6c23\u58d3\u8a08\u7684\u8b80\u6578\u55ce\uff1f\u53ef\u662f\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u5b8c\u5168\u53ef\u4ee5\u6539\u5beb\u6210 P = B […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6rhcT-cM","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jqnets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/792"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jqnets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jqnets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jqnets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jqnets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=792"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/jqnets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/792\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":795,"href":"https:\/\/jqnets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/792\/revisions\/795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jqnets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=792"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jqnets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=792"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jqnets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=792"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}