\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t1877 \u5e74\uff0c\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u5728\u82f1\u570b\u7687\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b78\u505a\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u6f14\u793a\u5831\u544a\u3002\u7687\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b78\u9662\u7684\u5831\u544a\u50b3\u7d71\u771f\u662f\u8b93\u4eba\u5fc3\u99b3\u795e\u5f80\u554a\u3002\u807d\u773e\u90fd\u662f\u5404\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u725b\u4eba\uff0c\u6b63\u88dd\u51fa\u5e2d\u5831\u544a\u4eba\u4e0d\u7528\u4ec0\u9ebc PPT\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u9762\u5411\u89c0\u773e\u5c31\u597d\u50cf\u8b8a\u9b54\u8853\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u4e00\u908a\u6f14\u793a\u5be6\u9a57\u4e00\u908a\u4f83\u4f83\u800c\u8ac7\uff0c\u8aaa\u7684\u90fd\u662f\u5c0d\u5927\u81ea\u7136\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u63ed\u79d8\u3002\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u9019\u6b21\u6f14\u793a\u7684\u6771\u897f\uff0c\u88ab\u5f8c\u4e16\u7a31\u70ba\u301d\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u677f\u301e\u3002 \u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u677f\u73fe\u5728\u9084\u6709\u8ce3\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5e73\u677f\uff0c\u4e0b\u90e8\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5782\u76f4\u7684\u69fd\uff0c\u69fd\u4e0a\u9762\u662f\u4e00\u4e9b\u6392\u5217\u6210\u4e09\u89d2\u5f62\u7684\u5c0f\u683c\u6a94\u3002\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\u8b93\u4e00\u500b\u5c0f\u7403\u5f9e\u6700\u4e0a\u65b9\u6389\u4e0b\u53bb\u5b83\u6703\u7d93\u904e\u5404\u500b\u9694\u64cb\u7684\u963b\u7919\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u843d\u5230\u4e00\u500b\u8c4e\u69fd\u88e1\u3002\u6bcf\u500b\u5c0f\u7403\u5728\u9032\u5165\u8c4e\u69fd\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u904b\u52d5\u90fd\u662f\u96a8\u6a5f\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7576\u4f60\u653e\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u5f88\u591a\u5c0f\u7403\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u5c31\u6703\u5728\u8c4e\u69fd\u4e0a\u5448\u73fe\u4e00\u500b\u660e\u986f\u6709\u898f\u5f8b\u7684\u5206\u4f48\uff1a\u4e00\u689d\u9418\u5f62\u66f2\u7dda\u3002\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\u9019\u7576\u7136\u5c31\u662f\u6b63\u614b\u5206\u4f48\u3002\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u677f\u6f14\u793a\u7684\u662f\u4eba\u7684\u907a\u50b3\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8eab\u9ad8\u548c\u667a\u5546\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u591a\u500b\u907a\u50b3\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u2015\u5c31\u597d\u50cf\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u677f\u4e0a\u7684\u90a3\u4e9b\u9694\u64cb — \u9019\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u7d9c\u5408\u8d77\u4f86\u4e00\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u5c31\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u6b63\u614b\u5206\u4f48\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u4eba\u7684\u8eab\u9ad8\u548c\u667a\u5546\u7684\u78ba\u5c31\u662f\u6b63\u614b\u5206\u4f48\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u60f3\u50cf\u4e0a\u9762\u5716\u4e2d\u6a6b\u5750\u6a19\u4ee3\u8868\u8eab\u9ad8\uff0c\u7e31\u5750\u6a19\u4ee3\u8868\u6bcf\u500b\u8eab\u9ad8\u503c\u4e0a\u7684\u4eba\u6578\u3002\u6b63\u614b\u5206\u4f48\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\u8eab\u9ad8\u7279\u5225\u9ad8\u548c\u7279\u5225\u77ee\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u5f88\u5c11\u3002\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\u6b63\u614b\u5206\u4f48\u4e0d\u662f\u65b0\u805e\u3002\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u9019\u500b\u5831\u544a\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u5287\u60c5\u9084\u5728\u5f8c\u9762\u3002\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u8aaa\u5982\u679c\u6211\u5728\u8c4e\u69fd\u4e0b\u9762\u518d\u653e\u4e0a\u4e00\u4e9b\u9694\u64cb\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u9694\u64cb\u4e0b\u9762\u518d\u653e\u4e0a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6392\u8c4e\u69fd\u5c31\u5982\u540c\u4e0b\u5716\u4e2d\u53f3\u908a\u90a3\u6a23\uff0c\u4f60\u8aaa\u6703\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6a23\u7684\u60c5\u666f\uff1f\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\u9019\u5c31\u6a21\u64ec\u4e86\u5169\u4ee3\u4eba\u7684\u8eab\u9ad8\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u6392\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8c4e\u69fd A ,\u4ee3\u8868\u7b2c\u4e00\u4ee3\u4eba\u7684\u8eab\u9ad8\u5206\u4f48\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u77e5\u9053\u662f\u6b63\u614b\u5206\u4f48\u3002\u90a3\u9ebc\u7b2c\u4e00\u4ee3\u4eba\u518d\u907a\u50b3\u4e00\u6b21\u5230\u9054\u8c4e\u69fd B \u6703\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5206\u4f48\uff1f\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\u4e0d\u8ad6\u662f\u7406\u8ad6\u63a8\u5c0e\u9084\u662f\u5be6\u9a57\u6f14\u793a\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6392\u8c4e\u69fd\u88e1\u7684\u5c0f\u7403\u90fd\u5448\u73fe\u4e00\u500b\u66f4\u5bec\u5ee3\u7684\u6b63\u614b\u5206\u4f48\u3002\u8c4e\u69fdB\u7684\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u5c31\u5982\u540c\u4e0b\u9762\u9019\u6a23\u2015\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\u9019\u610f\u5473\u8457\u6bcf\u4e00\u4ee3\u4eba\u8eab\u9ad8\u7684\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\u6703\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8eab\u9ad8\u7279\u5225\u9ad8\u548c\u7279\u5225\u77ee\u7684\u4eba\u61c9\u8a72\u4e00\u4ee3\u4ee3\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\u624d\u5c0d\u3002\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\u53ef\u662f\u771f\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u6839\u672c\u5c31\u4e0d\u662f\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u3002\u771f\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u88e1\u4e00\u4ee3\u4ee3\u4eba\u7684\u8eab\u9ad8\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\uff01\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\u6211\u518d\u63db\u500b\u8aaa\u6cd5\u4f60\u5c31\u66f4\u660e\u767d\u4e86\u3002\u5047\u8a2d\u73fe\u5728\u6709\u4e00\u6279\u8eab\u9ad8\u7279\u5225\u9ad8\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u8655\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u4ee3\u6b63\u614b\u5206\u4f48\u66f2\u7dda\u7684\u53f3\u5074\u908a\u7de3\u5730\u5e36\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u5011\u751f\u7684\u5b69\u5b50\u662f\u5728\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u8eab\u9ad8\u57fa\u790e\u4e0a\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u96a8\u6a5f\u6f14\u5316\u7684\u8a71\u5176\u4e2d\u61c9\u8a72\u6709\u4e00\u534a\u4eba\u7684\u8eab\u9ad8\u6bd4\u7236\u8f29\u9ad8\u3002\u5982\u6b64\u8aaa\u4f86\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4ee3\u8eab\u9ad8\u7684\u908a\u754c\u61c9\u8a72\u6bd4\u7b2c\u4e00\u4ee3\u66f4\u5bec\u624d\u5c0d\u3002\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\u4f46\u662f\u9019\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u767c\u751f\u3002\u771f\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u88e1\u725b\u4eba\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4ee3\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u6bd4\u725b\u4eba\u5f37\uff0c\u4e8c\u4ee3\u597d\u50cf\u666e\u904d\u6bd4\u4e00\u4ee3\u5f31\u3002\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u8003\u5bdf\u4e86 605 \u500b\u82f1\u570b\u540d\u4eba\u5c31\u767c\u73fe\u9019\u4e9b\u540d\u4eba\u7684\u5152\u5b50\u5011\u666e\u904d\u4e0d\u5982\u540d\u4eba\u81ea\u5df1\u6709\u540d\u3002\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\u9019\u500b\u898f\u5f8b\u597d\u50cf\u9084\u7121\u8655\u4e0d\u5728\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u59da\u660e\u7279\u5225\u9ad8\u4ed6\u7684\u59bb\u5b50\u4e5f\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u60f3\u50cf\u59da\u660e\u7684\u5973\u5152\u80af\u5b9a\u4e5f\u6703\u5f88\u9ad8 \u2015 \u4f46\u662f\u6839\u64da\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u767c\u73fe\u7684\u898f\u5f8b\uff0c\u59da\u660e\u5973\u5152\u7684\u8eab\u9ad8\u5c07\u4e0d\u6703\u50cf\u59da\u660e\u90a3\u9ebc\u9ad8\u3002\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u5979\u6703\u7a0d\u5fae\u77ee\u4e00\u9ede\u3002\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u628a\u9019\u500b\u73fe\u8c61\u53eb\u505a\u301d\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5eb8\u301e\u3002\u4e00\u4ee3\u51fa\u985e\u62d4\u8403\u4f54\u64da\u4e86\u6b63\u614b\u5206\u4f48\u66f2\u7dda\u908a\u7de3\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff1b\u4e8c\u4ee3\u5247\u666e\u904d\u6c92\u6709\u63a5\u8457\u958b\u7586\u62d3\u571f\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u9023\u4e00\u4ee3\u7684\u512a\u52e2\u90fd\u6c92\u4fdd\u4f4f\u53cd\u800c\u90fd\u5f80\u66f2\u7dda\u7684\u4e2d\u9593“\u56de\u6b78”\u3002\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u628a\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u677f\u505a\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u6539\u9032\uff0c\u628a\u4e00\u4e9b\u8c4e\u69fd\u8b8a\u6210\u659c\u69fd\u624d\u80fd\u9ad4\u73fe\u9019\u500b“\u56de\u6b78'\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t\u53ef\u9019\u659c\u69fd\u4ee3\u8868\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5462\uff1f\u96e3\u9053\u8aaa\u51a5\u51a5\u4e4b\u4e2d\u6709\u4e00\u7a2e\u529b\u91cf\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5eb8\u55ce\uff1f\n<\/p>\n
\n\t \n<\/p>\n
\n\t2. \u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u7684\u89e3\u91cb<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u6709\u4e9b\u554f\u984c\u503c\u5f97\u601d\u8003\u5341\u4e8c\u5e74\u3002\u4e00\u76f4\u5230 1889 \u5e74\u96e2\u723e\u9813\u624d\u628a\u9019\u500b\u4e8b\u60f3\u660e\u767d\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u610f\u8b58\u5230\u6839\u672c\u5c31\u6c92\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u7279\u6b8a\u529b\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u4ed6\u8003\u5bdf\u82f1\u570b\u7537\u5b50\u7684\u8eab\u9ad8\u548c\u624b\u81c2\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u8eab\u9ad8\u7279\u5225\u9ad8\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u624b\u81c2\u4e5f\u90fd\u5f88\u9577 \u2015 \u4f46\u662f\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u624b\u81c2\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u6700\u9577\u7684\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u597d\u50cf\u6700\u8070\u660e\u7684\u7236\u89aa\u6c92\u6709\u751f\u51fa\uff0e\u8070\u660e\u7684\u5152\u5b50\u4e00\u6a23\u3002\u624b\u81c2\u76f8\u5c0d\u65bc\u8eab\u9ad8\u4e5f\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5eb8\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u90a3\u6211\u5011\u60f3\u60f3\uff0c\u7236\u89aa\u8ddf\u5152\u5b50\u4e4b\u9593\u4e5f\u8a31\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u8eab\u9ad8\u8ddf\u624b\u81c2\u4e4b\u9593\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0d\u592a\u53f8\u80fd\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u554a\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u66f4\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u7236\u89aa\u76f8\u5c0d\u65bc\u5152\u5b50\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5eb8\uff01\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5148\u770b\u5152\u5b50\u8eab\u9ad8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u5152\u5b50\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u7236\u89aa\u7684\u8eab\u9ad8\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u3002\u986f\u7136\u5152\u5b50\u8eab\u9ad8\u4e26\u4e0d\u80fd\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7236\u89aa\u7684\u8eab\u9ad8\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u95dc\u4fc2\u80af\u5b9a\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff01\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u628a\u9019\u7a2e\u95dc\u4fc2\u53eb\u301d\u76f8\u95dc\u301e\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u301d\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u301e\u9019\u500b\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u8d77\u6e90\u3002\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u610f\u8b58\u5230\u301d\u76f8\u95dc\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u679c\u301e\u7684\u4eba\u3002<\/font>\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u5152\u5b50\u51fa\u751f\u7684\u6642\u5019\u7236\u89aa\u5df2\u7d93\u6210\u5e74\u4e86\uff0c\u5152\u5b50\u8eab\u9ad8\u7e3d\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u97ff\u7236\u89aa\u7684\u8eab\u9ad8\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u7d55\u5c0d\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u4e00\u7a2e\u4ec0\u9ebc\u795e\u79d8\u529b\uff0c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e86\u5f9e\u5152\u5b50\u5230\u7236\u89aa\u7684\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5eb8\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u4eca\u5929\u6211\u5011\u628a\u9019\u500b\u73fe\u8c61\u53eb\u301d\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747 ( regresson toward the mean )\u301e \u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t3. \u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u60f3\u8981\u7406\u89e3\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u4f60\u5f97\u7406\u89e3\u4e0b\u9762\u9019\u5169\u500b\u516c\u5f0f — \n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u25a0 \u6210\u529f = \u5929\u8ce6 + \u904b\u6c23\u3002<\/font><\/b>\n<\/p>\n \n\t\u25a0 \u5927\u6210\u529f = \u591a\u4e00\u9ede\u9ede\u5929\u8ce6 + \u5f88\u591a\u597d\u904b\u6c23\u3002<\/font><\/b>\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u4f60\u5f97\u627f\u8a8d\u904b\u6c23\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u5177\u9ad4\u5230\u8eab\u9ad8\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u7684\u8eab\u9ad8\u6709\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u7e7c\u627f\u4e86\u7236\u6bcd\u7684\u57fa\u56e0\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u7e7c\u627f\u4e86\u7236\u6bcd\u7684\u8cea\u56e0\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u4e00\u90e8\u4efd\u662f\u907a\u50b3\u57fa\u56e0\u7684\u6392\u5217\u7d44\u5408\u3001\u8ddf\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u57fa\u56e0\u8868\u9054\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u767c\u751f\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u904b\u6c23\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u9ad8\u500b\u7236\u89aa\u4e0d\u4f46\u6709\u597d\u57fa\u56e0\u800c\u4e14\u6709\u597d\u904b\u6c23\u3002\u57fa\u56e0\u53ef\u4ee5\u907a\u50b3\u53ef\u662f\u904b\u6c23\u4e0d\u80fd\u907a\u50b3\u3002\u597d\u904b\u6c23\u7e3d\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u7f55\u898b\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5927\u6982\u7387\u4e0b\uff0c\u5152\u5b50\u4e0d\u6703\u6709\u90a3\u9ebc\u597d\u7684\u904b\u6c23 — \u6240\u4ee5\u5152\u5b50\u7684\u8eab\u9ad8\u5c31\u4e0d\u5982\u7236\u89aa\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u9019\u5c31\u597d\u6bd4\u8aaa\u5982\u679c\u7236\u89aa\u7684\u6642\uff0c\u5f88\u5927\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u4f86\u81ea\u8cb7\u5f69\u5377\u4e2d\u4e86\u5927\u734e\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5bb9\u6613\u7406\u89e3\u5152\u5b50\u5c07\u4f86\u4e0d\u6703\u50cf\u7236\u89aa\u4e00\u6a23\u6709\u9322\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u4e2d\u570b\u6709\u53e5\u8a71\u53eb\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u4e09\u4ee3\u5176\u5be6\u4e26\u4e0d\u898b\u5f97\u662f\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4ee3\u548c\u7b2c\u4e09\u4ee3\u5f9e\u5c0f\u9a55\u5962\u6d6e\u9038\u4e0d\u6703\u8cfa\u9322\u4e86\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u50c5\u50c5\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u7b2c\u4e00\u4ee3\u7684\u597d\u904b\u6c23\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u7e7c\u627f\u7684\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u6240\u4ee5\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\u5176\u5be6\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u672c\u8cea\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5c0f\u6982\u7387\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u4e00\u518d\u767c\u751f\uff0c\u9019\u88e1\u9762\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u795e\u79d8\u529b\u91cf\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t4. \u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\u7a2e\u7a2e<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u6211\u7d66\u4f60\u8209\u5e7e\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u4e00\u500b\u96fb\u5f71\u5927\u7372\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u5c31\u51fa\u4e86\u7e8c\u96c6\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u7e8c\u96c6\u7684\u7968\u623f\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u5982\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u9ad8\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5462\uff1f\u7528\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\u5b8c\u5168\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u91cb\u597d\u96fb\u5f71\u7684\u7e8c\u96c6\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u597d\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u96fb\u5f71\u4e4b\u6240\u6240\u5927\u53d7\u6b61\u8fce\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u7684\u904b\u6c23\u597d\u3002\u597d\u904b\u6c23\u7e3d\u662f\u7a00\u5c11\u7684\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u96fb\u5f71\u6c92\u6709\u9019\u9ebc\u597d\u7684\u904b\u6c23\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5c31\u7372\u5f97\u5e73\u5eb8\u7684\u7968\u623f\u3002\u5176\u5be6\u5e73\u5eb8\u7968\u623f\u8a6a\u6b63\u5e38\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5927\u7372\u5927\u6210\u624d\u662f\u771f\u7684\u4e0d\u6b63\u5e38\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u6211\u6700\u6b61\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\u9084\u662f\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u8b1b\u7684\u3002\u6709\u4e00\u6b21\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u7d66\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u7a7a\u8ecd\u8fa6\u8b1b\u5ea7\uff0c\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u8b1b\u5230\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\uff0c\u8aaa\u4f60\u8981\u8981\u60f3\u8b93\u4f60\u7684\u5b78\u54e1\u9032\u6b65\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u591a\u6b63\u9762\u9f13\u52f5\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u53bb\u7f75\u4ed6\u5011\uff0c\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6\u6709\u5145\u5206\u7684\u8b49\u64da\uff0c\u6b63\u9762\u9f13\u52f5\u6bd4\u6253\u7f75\u6709\u6548\u5f97\u591a\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u9019\u6642\u5019\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u6559\u5b98\u8868\u793a\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u3002\u4ed6\u8ddf\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u8aaa\u6211\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u53ef\u4e0d\u662f\u9019\u6a23\u7684\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u500b\u98db\u884c\u54e1\u6709\u4e00\u5929\u98db\u5f97\u7279\u5225\u597d\u6211\u7576\u5834\u8868\u63da\u4ed6\u3001\u9f13\u52f5\u4ed6\u4e86\u4ed6\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5929\u5f80\u5f80\u98db\u5f97\u6c92\u6709\u90a3\u9ebc\u597d\u3002\u53ef\u662f\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u98db\u7684\u7279\u5225\u5dee\uff0c\u6211\u7f75\u4ed6\u4e00\u9813\u4ed6\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5929\u88e1\u7136\u5c31\u98db\u5f97\u6c92\u6709\u90a3\u9ebc\u5dee\u4e86\u3002\u9019\u4e0d\u5c31\u8aaa\u660e\u8868\u63da\u6c92\u7528\u6253\u7f75\u6709\u7528\u55ce\uff1f\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u4e00\u6642\u8a9e\u585e\uff01\u4ed6\u5f8c\u4f86\u624d\u60f3\u660e\u767d\u9019\u500b\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff0c\u9019\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u98db\u5f97\u7279\u5225\u597d\u9019\u7a2e\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e26\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u767c\u751f\uff0c\u4f60\u8868\u5834\u6216\u8005\u4e0d\u8868\u63da\u4ed6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u98db\u4e5f\u6703\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u6703\u6c92\u6709\u90a3\u9ebc\u597d\u3002\u98db\u5f97\u7279\u5225\u4e0d\u597d\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5c0f\u6982\u7387\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4f60\u6279\u8a55\u6216\u8005\u4e0d\u6279\u8a55\u4ed6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u98db\u4e5f\u6703\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u6703\u6c92\u6709\u90a3\u9ebc\u5dee\u3002\u5728\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\u9019\u500b\u5927\u8da8\u52e2\u9762\u524d\u8868\u5834\u56fa\u7136\u6c92\u6709\u7acb\u7aff\u898b\u5f62\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u6279\u8a55\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u5176\u5be6\u4e5f\u662f\u932f\u89ba\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u597d\u3002\u9019\u500b\u9053\u7406\u662f\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u4e8b\u767c\u751f\u5c31\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u7de3\u6545\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t5. Reason \u548c Cause<\/strong><\/span><\/span>\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u8aaa\u5230\u9019\u6211\u60f3\u8fa8\u6790\u5169\u500b\u82f1\u6587\u55ae\u5b57\uff0c\u301dreason\u301e\u548c\u301dcause\u301e\u3002\u9019\u5169\u500b\u8a5e\u7684\u610f\u601d\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u90fd\u662f\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u7d30\u54c1\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u6709\u91cd\u5927\u5340\u5225\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u6240\u8b02 reason<\/font>\uff0c\u662f\u5c0d\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u7684\u89e3\u91cb<\/font>\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u4f60\u554f\u6211\u96fb\u5f71\u7684\u7e8c\u96c6\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u7968\u623f\u4e0d\u9ad8\uff0c\u6211\u8aaa\u9019\u500b\u662f\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u5c0d\u4e8b\u60c5\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u89e3\u91cb<\/font>\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u800c cause<\/font>\uff0c\u5247\u662f\u5c0e\u81f4<\/font>\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u3002\u4f60\u73fe\u5728\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u611f\u89ba\u5230\u6709\u9ede\u9913\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4f60\u6c92\u5403\u65e9\u9910\u3002Cause \u5c31\u662f\u301d\u56e0\u70ba\u95dc\u7cfb\u301e\u88e1\u9762\u7684\u90a3\u500b\u301d\u56e0\u301e\uff0c\u5f8c\u7d71\u4e00\u7ffb\u8b6f\u6210\u301d\u7de3\u6545\u301e\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u9ad8\u500b\u7236\u89aa\u7684\u5152\u5b50\u5f80\u5f80\u6c92\u6709\u4ed6\u9ad8\uff1f\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u6709\u500b\u89e3\u91cb\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u7de3\u6545 \u2015 \u6c92\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u795e\u79d8\u529b\u91cf\u301d\u5c0e\u81f4\u301e\u5152\u5b50\u7684\u8eab\u9ad8\u8b8a\u77ee\uff0c\u9019\u7d14\u91cb\u662f\u500b\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u73fe\u8c61\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4f60\u8cb7\u5f69\u5f9e\u4e2d\u4e86\u5927\u734e\uff1f\u9019\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u89e3\u91cb — \u7e3d\u6703\u6709\u4eba\u4e2d\u5927\u734e\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u78b0\u5de7\u662f\u4f60\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u7de3\u6545 \u2015 \u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u4f60\u6628\u5929\u505a\u597d\u4e8b\u5e6b\u52a9\u5b64\u7368\u8001\u4eba\u301d\u5c0e\u81f4\u301e\u4e86\u4f60\u4eca\u5929\u4e2d\u5927\u734e\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6709\u4e9b\u4e8b\uff0c\u662f\u7121\u7de3\u7121\u6545\u767c\u751f\u7684\u3002<\/b>\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u7d42\u65bc\u610f\u8b58\u5230\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\u9019\u500b\u73fe\u50cf\u6839\u672c\u5c31\u6c92\u6709\u301dcause\u301e\u3002\u4ed6\u610f\u8b58\u5230 1877 \u5e74\u7684\u81ea\u5df1\u72af\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u4ee5\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e8b\u90fd\u6709\u7de3\u6545\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6163\u6027\u601d\u7dad\u5bb3\u4e86\u4ed6\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u75db\u5b9a\u601d\u75db\uff0c\u4e7e\u8106\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u4e00\u5207\u4e8b\u7269\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u56e0\u679c\uff0c\u5f8c\u4f86\u9ad8\u723e\u9813\u7684\u5f92\u5f1f\u53eb\u5361\u723e\uff0e\u76ae\u723e\u905c ( Karl Pearso ) \uff0c\u628a\u9019\u500b\u601d\u60f3\u7d66\u767c\u5c55\u58ef\u5927\u4e86\u3002\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t| \u5c0f\u7d50<\/span><\/span><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n \n\t \n<\/p>\n \n\t\u6240\u8b02 reason\uff0c\u662f\u8aaa\u5c0d\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u7684\u89e3\u91cb\u3002\u800c cause \uff0c\u5247\u662f\u5c0e\u81f4\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6709\u4e9b\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u662f\u7121\u7de3\u7121\u6545\u767c\u751f\u7684\u3002\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\u5176\u5be6\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u672c\u8cea\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5c0f\u6982\u7387\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u4e00\u518d\u767c\u751f — 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